Market Prices "Emulator" Lua Model

-- Define a function to generate Gaussian random numbers
local function gaussianRandom()
    local u, v, s
    repeat
        u = 2 * math.random() - 1
        v = 2 * math.random() - 1
        s = u^2 + v^2
    until s ~= 0 and s < 1
    return u * math.sqrt(-2 * math.log(s) / s)
end

-- Calculate the next price of the stock based on various factors
local function calculateNextPrice(currentPrice, dt, drift, volatility, meanPrice, externalFactors)
    -- Incorporate external factors
    local externalInfluence = 0
    for _, factor in ipairs(externalFactors) do
        externalInfluence = externalInfluence + factor.influence * factor.value
    end

    local randomShock = gaussianRandom()

    -- Slightly random drift component
    local driftComponent = (drift + (meanPrice - currentPrice) / currentPrice + externalInfluence + math.random(-0.03, 0.03)) * dt

    -- Capped and dynamic volatility
    local cappedVolatility = math.min(volatility, 0.3)
    volatility = volatility + math.random(-0.02, 0.02)
    volatility = math.clamp(volatility, 0.1, 0.3)

    local diffusion = cappedVolatility * randomShock * math.sqrt(dt)
    local changeFactor = math.exp(driftComponent + diffusion)
    return currentPrice * changeFactor
end

-- Determine the emoji to display based on price changes
local function determineEmoji(previousPrice, currentPrice)
    local changeThreshold = 0.02
    if currentPrice >= previousPrice * (1 + changeThreshold) then
        return "🔼"
    elseif currentPrice <= previousPrice * (1 - changeThreshold) then
        return "🔻"
    else
        return "➖"
    end
end

-- Simulate the stock market
local function simulateStockMarket()
    local stock = {
        name = "RoCoin (rC)",
        price = math.random(50, 250),
        drift = 0.05,
        volatility = 0.15,
        meanPrice = math.random(0, 1234567890) -- Initial mean price
    }

    local externalEvents = {
        {name = "EconomicNews", influence = 0.01, value = 0},
        {name = "MarketCrash", influence = -0.2, value = 0},
        {name = "ProductLaunch", influence = 0.15, value = 0},
    }

    local previousPrice = stock.price

    local meanPriceTrend = 0.01 -- Average speed of mean price change
    local meanPriceVolatility = 0.1 -- Volatility in the mean price change

    while true do
        local dt = 1

        -- Potentially trigger an external event
        if math.random() < 0.05 then
            local eventIndex = math.random(1, #externalEvents)
            externalEvents[eventIndex].value = math.random(-1, 1) * externalEvents[eventIndex].influence
        end

        -- Update the mean price with a random drift
        stock.meanPrice = stock.meanPrice + (meanPriceTrend * dt) + (gaussianRandom() * meanPriceVolatility * math.sqrt(dt))
        stock.meanPrice = math.clamp(stock.meanPrice, 20, 80)

        stock.price = calculateNextPrice(
            stock.price,
            dt,
            stock.drift,
            stock.volatility,
            stock.meanPrice,
            externalEvents
        )

        local change = stock.price - previousPrice
        local percentageChange = (change / previousPrice) * 100

        local emoji = determineEmoji(previousPrice, stock.price)
        print(string.format("%s: $%.2f %s (%.1f%%)", stock.name, stock.price, emoji, percentageChange))

        previousPrice = stock.price
        wait(0.5)
    end
end

simulateStockMarket()