But is that true? Did DeSantis “do” anything to improve Florida’s COVID numbers? And does the state’s 180-degree turn somehow prove that more cautious policies “provide no benefits”?

The answer is no.
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No, the state with the fewest daily COVID cases per capita is the same one that recently had <em>more</em> than any other: Florida.

During the past two months, however, Florida’s daily average has plummeted by more than 90 percent, to about 1,700 cases, or eight for every 100,000 residents. That’s roughly half of California’s current COVID rate and less than a quarter of Vermont’s. Hawaii (with nine cases for every 100,000 residents) is the only other state in single digits.

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It’s doubtful even DeSantis himself would claim he’s the <em>reason</em> Florida is recording so many fewer COVID cases today than in August. The virus, we’ve known for some time, comes in waves — waves that ascend, peak and ultimately recede on a remarkably consistent timeline.

According to the New York Times’s David Leonhardt, “Covid has often followed a regular — if mysterious — cycle. In one country after another, the number of new cases has often surged for roughly two months before starting to fall.” And “the Delta variant, despite its intense contagiousness, has followed this pattern.”

Florida is no exception: Cases started rising there in late June and started falling in late August — right on schedule. Likewise, all the states where COVID cases have fallen the most during the past two weeks — Tennessee, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Texas, Kentucky, North Carolina — are states that endured huge peaks in mid-September. And the higher the peak — the more people recently infected — the sharper the descent.

Like everything else about America’s COVID ordeal, the state’s declining infection numbers are being turned into political talking points. Conservatives on Twitter and Fox News now claim that Florida’s turnaround vindicates the hands-off policies of Republican Gov. (and likely 2024 presidential hopeful) Ron DeSantis, who spent his summer prohibiting local schools, businesses and governments from trying to minimize transmission by requiring masks or vaccination while emphasizing costly post-infection treatments such as monoclonal antibodies instead.

“DeSantis critics and the mainstream media remain quiet as Florida's COVID numbers drop,” read a recent headline on Newsmax, a right-wing site.

“Well it’s official, Florida currently has the LOWEST per capita COVID cases among the contiguous 48 states,” Steven Krakauer, executive producer of "The Megyn Kelly Show," tweeted last week. “Looking forward to the next batch of DeSantis media coverage that's sure to be coming soon…”
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