Guards Guards - Odds

“Anyone ever heard of a thousand-to-one shot coming up?”

Carrot looked up. “Don't be daft, Sergeant,” he said. “No-one ever saw a thousand-to-one chance come up. The odds against it are-” his lips moved- “millions to one.” “Yeah. Millions,” agreed Nobby. “So it'd only work if it's your actual million-to-one chance,” said the sergeant. “I suppose that's right,” said Nobby. “So 999,943-to-one, for example-” Colon began. Carrot shook his head. “Wouldn't have a hope. No-one ever said, 'It's a 999,943-to-one chance but it might just work.' ”

They stared out across the city in the silence of ferocious mental calculation.

“We could have a real problem here,” said Colon eventually.

Carrot started to scribble furiously. When questioned, he explained at length about how you found the surface area of a dragon and then tried to estimate the chances of an arrow hitting any one spot. “Aimed, mind,” said Sergeant Colon. “I aim. ” Nobby coughed.

“In that case it's got to be a lot less than a million-to-one chance,” said Carrot. “It could be a hundred-to-one. If the dragon's flying slowly and it's a big spot, it could be practically a certainty.” Colon's lips shaped themselves around the phrase,

It's a certainty but it might just work. He shook his head. “Nah,” he said.

“So what we've got to do, then,” said Nobby slowly, “is adjust the odds ...”

***

Guards Guards - p305-306