Poisson Twitter Followers

#!/usr/bin/perl
#
# Script for number for modelling twitter follower increase using a Poisson distribution
# http://zaynertech.blogspot.com
#

my %val = ();

#hard coded values for Poisson distribution
@counts = qw(0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12);
@countsprob = qw(0.67 3.37 8.42 14.04 17.55 17.55 14.62 10.44 6.53 3.63 1.81 0.82 0.34);

# starting number of followers
$total = 6622356;

open(FILER, ">", "calc.dist");

#7344 is total time divided by 64 seconds per 5 counts

for($x = 0; $x <7344; $x++)
{

  $rnum = rand(10000);
  $tots = 0;
  for($y = 0; $y < 12; $y++)
  {
    $tots = $tots + (100 *$countsprob[$y]);

    if($rnum <= $tots){ $val{$x} = $counts[$y]; last;}
  }
  $total = $total + $val{$x};
  $realx = $x *64;
  print FILER "$realx $total\n";


}

close(FILER);